Update: 2010 Senate Races

Last week the RNC and DNC released their first quarter fundraising results The good news is that Republicans are in good shape financially raising $25.3 million. Democrats raised a total of $13.8 million. The bad news is that Republicans are going to need all the financial help they can get. There are total of 19 seats that Republicans are defending versus 17 for the Democrats.

The way I see this election there are about 6 Republican seats that are up for grabs (Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio). These seats are up for grabs because either the seat is open due to retirement or an unpopular incumbent. One important thing to keep in mind is the number one, all it takes is one of these seats to go Democratic and there are 60 Democratic votes in the Senate. The races break down like this:

Missouri
A real mess for Republicans. The seat is from retiring Senator Kit Bond (R). The other senator is a Democrat. The state basically went 50-50 in 2008. The dems seem to already have their nominee Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, who comes from a very famous political family in the state. On the Republican side there is one announced candidate Rep Roy Blunt but he is doing all the well in terms of polls and money.

Kentucky
In 2004 Senator Bunning barely won and it looks like if he does actually go forward and run he might actually lose. Bunning has not been getting any help from Senate Republicans. What's worse is that there aren't many possibilities the Republicans can put up against Bunning.

New Hampshire
The seat is open after the retirement of Judd Gregg. The democratic nominee looks like it could be between current democratic Rep. Paul Hodes and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. Former Senator John Sununu seems to be the only likely Republican that would get into the race.

Florida
Another open seat after the retirement of Republican Mel Martinez. This race is a toss-up at least until the nominees are decided. The state went for Obama in 2008 but right now in a head to head matchup a generic republican leads by 1%.

Pennsylvania
Senator Arlen Specter is running for re-election but will face a primary fight against former Rep. Pete Tooomey and a tough general election. Pennsylvania is a blue state and the 2004 race was very close. I see Specter surviving the primary challenge, but I can see him running out of energy and money to put up a good fight.

Ohio
Open seat due to retirement of Republican Senator George Voinivich. I think this seat will stay in Republican hands. Former Rep. Rob Portman seems to have a good hold on the race. At the end of the day the state is Ohio and has been a toss-up in recent national elections.

The Democrats will have to work hard in about 4 states (Colorado, Illinois, Connecticut,Nevada). What you should note about that statement is that I said "work hard" in 4 states. Each one of these states are unique on their own.

Illinois
Illinois could be a possibility (I know I am optimistic) depending on who the Republican nominee is. The only real chance this could be a race is if Rep. Mark Kirk decides to run for the Senate. Even with Kirk in the race it will be tough, Illinois is a very blue state. Illinoisans are mad at the corruption of their former governor and the scandals around their Senator Roland Burris, but I don't think they are mad enough to vote for the other party just another Democratic candidate.

Connecticut
I blogged entirely about this race last week. For more details see that post but the bottom line is Dodd is not popular in the state and losing in the polls right now. If the banking scandals surronding him continue he very well may be out of a job. What you should keep in mind though is Connecticut is as blue as the Atlantic Ocean.

Nevada
Could be a race depending what happens in the Senate between now and election time. It is not an impossibility that a Senate Majority Leader loses a re-election bid.

Colorado
Colorado is just a purple state and you can't quite tell what can happen with it. The state went for Obama and the current Senator is Michael Bennet, who was appointed to the seat and has never been on a statewide ballot.

As with every election time will obviously tell, it does not look good for Republicans right now. I can see a very real possibility that Dems pick up 3 or 4 seats.