A Connecticut Lesson: Dodd has something to learn from Lieberman

The 2010 Senate race is getting interesting already. Republicans have a challenge ahead of them trying to prevent the Democrats getting 60 seats. But could they gain a seat in Connecticut? That's right I didn't mistype the state, Connecticut. Senator Chris Dodd is in for a tough re-election fight.

To give a little background on Connecticut right now their entire congressional delegation is Democratic and in fact the entire New England Delegation is Democratic. Connecticut hasn't voted for a Republican in a presidential election since 1988. Right now there are three potential Republican challengers and each one is beating Senator Dodd in a head to head match up. A recent Quinnipiac University poll has the race as follows:

Match-up #1
Candidate Vote%
Former Rep. Rob Simmons 50%
Senator Dodd 34%


Match-up #2
Candidate Vote%
State St. Sam Caliguri 41%
Senator Dodd 37%

Match-up #3
Candidate Vote%
Ambassador Tom Foley 43%
Senator Dodd 35%

Not only are the poll numbers frightening for Dodd and his allies, his fundraising abilities (or lack thereof) within Connecticut shows he might be in trouble. Dodd recent filing with the FEC shows he has $1 million raised the first quarter but only $4250 came from within the state. Those numbers highlight his unpopularity within the state but also a larger issue with campaign finance

Keep in mind $1 million is still a $1 million and Dodd still is an incumbent. There also is no doubt Dodd will get help from his Senate colleagues and former Senate colleagues like President Obama and Vice President Biden. The White House is already talking about Senator Dodd and their eagerness to help come 2010 (which means they are already scared).

But I believe there is a lesson Senator Dodd should learn from the other Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman. Lieberman when he ran for re-election lost the Democratic nomination in 2006 but won as an Independent. The lesson Liberman learned was if Connecticut likes you, you will win. The same logic can be applied for Dodd, if Connecticut doesn't like you, you can lose. In 2006, a lot of national Democrats did not like Liberman but Connecticuters did. In 2010, a lot of national democrats like Dodd, but so far Connecticuters don't. In the end, Connecticut picks their Senator.

It's still very early in this Senate race and a lot of anger towards Dodd is directed at him from what he has done (or not done) as Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee. If the economic situation improves people may be more forgiving of him but he does have some other ethical accusations against him. I certainly can't call this race yet but I believe in 6 months we can have an idea of where this race is heading.