Specter Switch

In case you missed one of the biggest stories of last week's news cycle, Senator Specter announced that he was switching parties and deciding to run for re-election as a Democrat. This decision of course does not only impact the 2010 election but also the current balance of the Senate. Officially there are now 59 Democratic Senators and 40 Republicans. The one remaining seat is still being debated in Minnesota but it looks very likely the Democrats will be successful and have the 60 votes any party would want.

Specter's announcement is not particularly shocking to the political world because at best Specter was a moderate Republican. There are numerous events where Specter has been in the middle opposing a conservative initiative.

Specter faced a very difficult Republican primary against former Rep. Pete Toomey and his chances in the general election as a Republican were not great either. If Specter was able to beat Toomey for the Republican nomination I think his campaign would have been out of money in a general election fight.

In terms of how this announcement changes the prospects in 2010 is hard to tell right now. Former Pennsylvania Governor and Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge is now "seriously considering" a run for the Senate seat. I believe Republicans would have a better chance of winning the seat if Tom Ridge was the nominee over former Rep. Pete Toomey.

Furthermore, Specter may not have a wideopen Democratic field for him. Rep. Joe Sestak is at least open to challenging Specter. Sestak certainly has a chance and a good bit of money on his side. Keep in mind Specter might have switched parties but he is not a liberal, he is a moderate. Pennsylvania Democrats might look to Sestak as someone who could win a general election and someone who agrees with them on all issues.

Republicans certainly can be positive about their chances in Pennsylvania. The Senate race is not over because Specter is not running as a Republican, in fact they could be better off due to Democrats potential hesitation towards him.

My prediction is if Tom Ridge wins the nomination, the general election is too close to call against Specter. If Rep. Sestak wins the Democratic nomination and faces Ridge this seat could go back into Republican hands.