What Will Palin Do?

Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin shocked the political world when she announced her intention to step down as Governor at the end of July. Palin worded her resignation in a way that makes me think that she is interested in other political offices. But I believe she made a significant political miscalculation in resigning as governor.

One reason given for her resignation was that the Governor did not want to waste taxpayer money by being an ineffective lame duck governor. I respect her attempts at trying to save tax payer dollars but I believe she is flawed in her logic. Governor Palin's replacement will be Lt. Governor Sean Parnell who is running for governor in 2010. Alaskans will not be better off because instead of having a full-time governor, in Palin, they will now have a part-time governor whose focus will be on being elected governor, in Parnell.

Being a lame duck office holder is not really a place any politician wants to be but quiting is not really the appropriate action. In November of 2008 it would not have been appropriate for President Bush to resign and have Vice President Cheney take over. A governor or a president still has official duties that must be done. I cannot think of anyone at least in modern history that has resigned because they were a lame duck.

Governor Palin appears to have higher aspirations and I can see her not wanting to run for re-election but stepping down is odd. If anything being a lame duck governor for an aspiring politician is the best thing that can happen to that politician. The lame duck governor won't have to worry about legislative battles instead they can focus on their other official duties and still use their pulpit as a governor to gain attention on the national stage.

The more murky area is what exactly Palin will do now, her resignation was worded indicating she is not done with public service and I believe there are four sceanrios that could happen for Palin.

Sceanario 1: Palin runs for Congress

There are three offices that Palin could take over for potentially, the two US Senate seats or the US House seat. Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski is up for re-election next year and so is Rep. Don Young, both are Republicans. Both Murkowski and Young have had some ethical issues in the past and Palin could be looking to capitalize on their issues to defeat them for re-election. Palin does have a history of fighting corruption and challenging members of her party.

Palin was elected Governor by beating Govenor Frank Murkowski (father of the Senator) and she might have an agenda to elminate the whole family from public office.

Competitive Republican primaries are not unusal in Alaska, Rep. Young was challenged in last year's primary by none other then, Lt Governor now soon-to- be-Governor Sean Parnell.

If Palin runs for Congress I think her easiest competition would be against Rep. Young, who only won his primary by 304 votes.

Sceanario 2: Palin goes to Congress

No this scenario is not redundant, Palin might not have to challange an incumbent. For being a rather densely populated state Alaskan politicians have had some corruption issues in the past. I don't want to start rumors but it is possible there could be some corruption charges coming down the pipeline that Palin might have been made aware of. In very recent history Senator Murkowski and Rep. Young have had ethic probes or complaints filed against them. The other Alaskan Senator Mark Begich, a Democrat, has actually had a clean past that I know of, but there were some shady areas in his recent Senate campaign.

If there was some sort of ethical issue that could cause one of the senators or congressman to step down Palin now would be in an excellent position to be appointed to that office. The person that would be making the appointment to fill any vacant seat would be by the person Palin just made Governor.

Of course, this sceanrio is not really probable and there would probably be more questions and suspicion of Palin if it came true.

Sceanario 3: Palin prepares to run for the Presidency

Presidential campaigns are time consuming and expensive. President Obama starting running in 2006, two years before winning the office. If Palin wanted to run in 2012 she could have a headstart over everybody else in the race.

However, I think that her resignation to leave office early to run for president is not something that will sit well with voters and will be a big negative her campaign will have to deal with. Of course, Palin is 45 years old, and being president in 2012 might not be her goal. The Governor is young enough to be able to run in 15 years if she wanted to be president.

If Palin's looking to be president in the future she would have to do something now to prepare her resume. With President Obama in the White House I don't think she can expect a high level appointment of some kind. A good private sector job though could certainly help her resume and she can wait until 2014 when Senator Begich is up for re-election (who realistically will be a one term Senator).

Sceanario #4: Palin remains a semi-private citizen

There certainly is no question that the governor and her family have had their lives turned upside down since joining the national stage. It is possible the Governor resigned for the sake of her family and will work for the public good but not hold any public office.

The former Governor would be a great hire by any not for profit organizations and would be a great spokeswoman for multiple causes. If Palin stays out of public office her and her family stay out of the spotlight and won't be the blunt of latenight talkshow jokes.

What Governor Palin really plans on doing is not known and she has not indicated any desire to let the media or the public know until she is ready to tell people. We regretably will have to wait this out and see what exactly the Governor will do.