Update: 2010 Senate Race

Although just earlier this week Al Franken was sworn as the 60th Democratic Senator, giving that party a filibuster proof majority there is good news on the horizon for the GOP. cRepublicans chances are helped by some recent polling indicating an American distaste for President Obama and Democratic leadership. One recent Rasmussen poll shows that Americans trust Republicans more than Democrats on eight issues including: Economy, Taxes, Social Security, Abortion, Iraq, National Security, Immigration, and Government Ethics. The only two issues Republicans lost to Democrats were Education and Health care.

In today's Rasmussen Preisdential Tracking Poll 38% of Americans Strongly Disapprove of President Obama's performance versus 30% strongly approving.

The other good news is how some of the key Senate races are shaping up across the country. Here is current break down of some key races with news to report.

New Hampshire: I first thought, Republicans would not have a chance when former Senator John Sununu said he would not challenge Rep. Paul Hodes to the Senate seat. My initial thinking was wrong when current state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte decided to enter the race. A recent University of New Hampshire poll shows Ayotte leading Hodes by 4% points. The other good news is that there are multiple other credible Republicans thinking about entering the race.

Illinois: There was some very big news that came out this week, Rep. Mark Kirk, a Republican, has decided he will run for the Senate seat. Rep. Kirk is by far the strongest Republican and makes this race competitive. The other news that came out today is that the current Senator Roland Burris will not seek re-election. Burris did not have any chance of actually winning a full term. Rep. Kirk's chances look even better now that state Attorney General Lisa Madigan has decided to seek a third term rather than run for the Senate. The only credible Democratic challenger is state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias who has raised a considerable amount of money. Rep. Kirk can run on his experienc and not being party of the Chicago political machine, both of which would be Giannoulias' weaknesses.

Nevada: Democratic Senate Majority Harry Reid may have to fight to keep his Senate seat. A recent Mason-Dixon poll in that state shows Harry Reid's approval sits at 34% which is 5 points below Nevada's other Senator John Ensign. The key to this poll is that it was taken right after the news of Senator Ensign's sex scandal. I believe the key to this race is finding a credible Republican to run against Reid.

Texas: Could have a Senate race as long as current Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison decides to resign her seat and challenge Republican Governor Rick Perry. I still have questions whether or not Hutchison will run. A recent Univeristy of Texas poll shows her trailing by 12% in the Republican primary. I'll update information on a Texas Senate race when I know there actually will be one.

New York: There are actually two Senate races but the only one that could be a challenge is the seat currently occoupied by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. The race is going to be competitive for sure on the Democratic side with Rep. Carolyn Maloney challenging Gillibrand. Rep. Maloney's has been helped by the support from President Bill Clinton, whose wife used to have that particualr Senate seat. The Democratic primary can be very bruising with democrats having to decide between the candidate supported by President Clinton and the candidate supported by President Obama. A Republican can have a chance if they play off of the democratic internal fights. Right now there is not a strong potential Republican challenger, Rep Pete King has said he probably will not run for the seat. Senator Gillibrand is a moderate and I think Republicans would have a better chance if there was a bitter Democratic primary and Gillibrand lost. Angry Gillibrand voters could become potential Republican voters.

Kentucky: No real news here with what current Senator Jim Bunning is doing. Signs show he probably is not running but does not have any motivation to say so. The recent news is that Rand Paul, song of Ron Paul, a Republican Congressmen from Texas and former presidential candidate is going to run whether Bunning is running or not.

So far so good for Republicans. The key is at this point though is to remember that polls can change based on events. If approval ratings of President Obama continue to trend the way they have he will be very unpopular on election day in 2010. If he is unpopular there are more Senate and House rates that can be competitive. At this point though, Democrats have huge majorities in the House, filibuster proof majorities in the Senate, and the White House, whatever happens between now and election day is going to be on Demorcrats, good or bad.