Although just earlier this week Al Franken was sworn as the 60th Democratic Senator, giving that party a filibuster proof majority there is good news on the horizon for the GOP. cRepublicans chances are helped by some recent polling indicating an American distaste for President Obama and Democratic leadership. One recent Rasmussen poll shows that Americans trust Republicans more than Democrats on eight issues including: Economy, Taxes, Social Security, Abortion, Iraq, National Security, Immigration, and Government Ethics. The only two issues Republicans lost to Democrats were Education and Health care.
In today's Rasmussen Preisdential Tracking Poll 38% of Americans Strongly Disapprove of President Obama's performance versus 30% strongly approving.
The other good news is how some of the key Senate races are shaping up across the country. Here is current break down of some key races with news to report.
New Hampshire: I first thought, Republicans would not have a chance when former Senator John Sununu said he would not challenge Rep. Paul Hodes to the Senate seat. My initial thinking was wrong when current state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte decided to enter the race. A recent University of New Hampshire poll shows Ayotte leading Hodes by 4% points. The other good news is that there are multiple other credible Republicans thinking about entering the race.
Illinois: There was some very big news that came out this week, Rep. Mark Kirk, a Republican, has decided he will run for the Senate seat. Rep. Kirk is by far the strongest Republican and makes this race competitive. The other news that came out today is that the current Senator Roland Burris will not seek re-election. Burris did not have any chance of actually winning a full term. Rep. Kirk's chances look even better now that state Attorney General Lisa Madigan has decided to seek a third term rather than run for the Senate. The only credible Democratic challenger is state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias who has raised a considerable amount of money. Rep. Kirk can run on his experienc and not being party of the Chicago political machine, both of which would be Giannoulias' weaknesses.
Nevada: Democratic Senate Majority Harry Reid may have to fight to keep his Senate seat. A recent Mason-Dixon poll in that state shows Harry Reid's approval sits at 34% which is 5 points below Nevada's other Senator John Ensign. The key to this poll is that it was taken right after the news of Senator Ensign's sex scandal. I believe the key to this race is finding a credible Republican to run against Reid.
Texas: Could have a Senate race as long as current Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison decides to resign her seat and challenge Republican Governor Rick Perry. I still have questions whether or not Hutchison will run. A recent Univeristy of Texas poll shows her trailing by 12% in the Republican primary. I'll update information on a Texas Senate race when I know there actually will be one.
New York: There are actually two Senate races but the only one that could be a challenge is the seat currently occoupied by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. The race is going to be competitive for sure on the Democratic side with Rep. Carolyn Maloney challenging Gillibrand. Rep. Maloney's has been helped by the support from President Bill Clinton, whose wife used to have that particualr Senate seat. The Democratic primary can be very bruising with democrats having to decide between the candidate supported by President Clinton and the candidate supported by President Obama. A Republican can have a chance if they play off of the democratic internal fights. Right now there is not a strong potential Republican challenger, Rep Pete King has said he probably will not run for the seat. Senator Gillibrand is a moderate and I think Republicans would have a better chance if there was a bitter Democratic primary and Gillibrand lost. Angry Gillibrand voters could become potential Republican voters.
Kentucky: No real news here with what current Senator Jim Bunning is doing. Signs show he probably is not running but does not have any motivation to say so. The recent news is that Rand Paul, song of Ron Paul, a Republican Congressmen from Texas and former presidential candidate is going to run whether Bunning is running or not.
So far so good for Republicans. The key is at this point though is to remember that polls can change based on events. If approval ratings of President Obama continue to trend the way they have he will be very unpopular on election day in 2010. If he is unpopular there are more Senate and House rates that can be competitive. At this point though, Democrats have huge majorities in the House, filibuster proof majorities in the Senate, and the White House, whatever happens between now and election day is going to be on Demorcrats, good or bad.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Sunday, July 5, 2009
What Will Palin Do?
Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin shocked the political world when she announced her intention to step down as Governor at the end of July. Palin worded her resignation in a way that makes me think that she is interested in other political offices. But I believe she made a significant political miscalculation in resigning as governor.
One reason given for her resignation was that the Governor did not want to waste taxpayer money by being an ineffective lame duck governor. I respect her attempts at trying to save tax payer dollars but I believe she is flawed in her logic. Governor Palin's replacement will be Lt. Governor Sean Parnell who is running for governor in 2010. Alaskans will not be better off because instead of having a full-time governor, in Palin, they will now have a part-time governor whose focus will be on being elected governor, in Parnell.
Being a lame duck office holder is not really a place any politician wants to be but quiting is not really the appropriate action. In November of 2008 it would not have been appropriate for President Bush to resign and have Vice President Cheney take over. A governor or a president still has official duties that must be done. I cannot think of anyone at least in modern history that has resigned because they were a lame duck.
Governor Palin appears to have higher aspirations and I can see her not wanting to run for re-election but stepping down is odd. If anything being a lame duck governor for an aspiring politician is the best thing that can happen to that politician. The lame duck governor won't have to worry about legislative battles instead they can focus on their other official duties and still use their pulpit as a governor to gain attention on the national stage.
The more murky area is what exactly Palin will do now, her resignation was worded indicating she is not done with public service and I believe there are four sceanrios that could happen for Palin.
Sceanario 1: Palin runs for Congress
There are three offices that Palin could take over for potentially, the two US Senate seats or the US House seat. Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski is up for re-election next year and so is Rep. Don Young, both are Republicans. Both Murkowski and Young have had some ethical issues in the past and Palin could be looking to capitalize on their issues to defeat them for re-election. Palin does have a history of fighting corruption and challenging members of her party.
Palin was elected Governor by beating Govenor Frank Murkowski (father of the Senator) and she might have an agenda to elminate the whole family from public office.
Competitive Republican primaries are not unusal in Alaska, Rep. Young was challenged in last year's primary by none other then, Lt Governor now soon-to- be-Governor Sean Parnell.
If Palin runs for Congress I think her easiest competition would be against Rep. Young, who only won his primary by 304 votes.
Sceanario 2: Palin goes to Congress
No this scenario is not redundant, Palin might not have to challange an incumbent. For being a rather densely populated state Alaskan politicians have had some corruption issues in the past. I don't want to start rumors but it is possible there could be some corruption charges coming down the pipeline that Palin might have been made aware of. In very recent history Senator Murkowski and Rep. Young have had ethic probes or complaints filed against them. The other Alaskan Senator Mark Begich, a Democrat, has actually had a clean past that I know of, but there were some shady areas in his recent Senate campaign.
If there was some sort of ethical issue that could cause one of the senators or congressman to step down Palin now would be in an excellent position to be appointed to that office. The person that would be making the appointment to fill any vacant seat would be by the person Palin just made Governor.
Of course, this sceanrio is not really probable and there would probably be more questions and suspicion of Palin if it came true.
Sceanario 3: Palin prepares to run for the Presidency
Presidential campaigns are time consuming and expensive. President Obama starting running in 2006, two years before winning the office. If Palin wanted to run in 2012 she could have a headstart over everybody else in the race.
However, I think that her resignation to leave office early to run for president is not something that will sit well with voters and will be a big negative her campaign will have to deal with. Of course, Palin is 45 years old, and being president in 2012 might not be her goal. The Governor is young enough to be able to run in 15 years if she wanted to be president.
If Palin's looking to be president in the future she would have to do something now to prepare her resume. With President Obama in the White House I don't think she can expect a high level appointment of some kind. A good private sector job though could certainly help her resume and she can wait until 2014 when Senator Begich is up for re-election (who realistically will be a one term Senator).
Sceanario #4: Palin remains a semi-private citizen
There certainly is no question that the governor and her family have had their lives turned upside down since joining the national stage. It is possible the Governor resigned for the sake of her family and will work for the public good but not hold any public office.
The former Governor would be a great hire by any not for profit organizations and would be a great spokeswoman for multiple causes. If Palin stays out of public office her and her family stay out of the spotlight and won't be the blunt of latenight talkshow jokes.
What Governor Palin really plans on doing is not known and she has not indicated any desire to let the media or the public know until she is ready to tell people. We regretably will have to wait this out and see what exactly the Governor will do.
One reason given for her resignation was that the Governor did not want to waste taxpayer money by being an ineffective lame duck governor. I respect her attempts at trying to save tax payer dollars but I believe she is flawed in her logic. Governor Palin's replacement will be Lt. Governor Sean Parnell who is running for governor in 2010. Alaskans will not be better off because instead of having a full-time governor, in Palin, they will now have a part-time governor whose focus will be on being elected governor, in Parnell.
Being a lame duck office holder is not really a place any politician wants to be but quiting is not really the appropriate action. In November of 2008 it would not have been appropriate for President Bush to resign and have Vice President Cheney take over. A governor or a president still has official duties that must be done. I cannot think of anyone at least in modern history that has resigned because they were a lame duck.
Governor Palin appears to have higher aspirations and I can see her not wanting to run for re-election but stepping down is odd. If anything being a lame duck governor for an aspiring politician is the best thing that can happen to that politician. The lame duck governor won't have to worry about legislative battles instead they can focus on their other official duties and still use their pulpit as a governor to gain attention on the national stage.
The more murky area is what exactly Palin will do now, her resignation was worded indicating she is not done with public service and I believe there are four sceanrios that could happen for Palin.
Sceanario 1: Palin runs for Congress
There are three offices that Palin could take over for potentially, the two US Senate seats or the US House seat. Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski is up for re-election next year and so is Rep. Don Young, both are Republicans. Both Murkowski and Young have had some ethical issues in the past and Palin could be looking to capitalize on their issues to defeat them for re-election. Palin does have a history of fighting corruption and challenging members of her party.
Palin was elected Governor by beating Govenor Frank Murkowski (father of the Senator) and she might have an agenda to elminate the whole family from public office.
Competitive Republican primaries are not unusal in Alaska, Rep. Young was challenged in last year's primary by none other then, Lt Governor now soon-to- be-Governor Sean Parnell.
If Palin runs for Congress I think her easiest competition would be against Rep. Young, who only won his primary by 304 votes.
Sceanario 2: Palin goes to Congress
No this scenario is not redundant, Palin might not have to challange an incumbent. For being a rather densely populated state Alaskan politicians have had some corruption issues in the past. I don't want to start rumors but it is possible there could be some corruption charges coming down the pipeline that Palin might have been made aware of. In very recent history Senator Murkowski and Rep. Young have had ethic probes or complaints filed against them. The other Alaskan Senator Mark Begich, a Democrat, has actually had a clean past that I know of, but there were some shady areas in his recent Senate campaign.
If there was some sort of ethical issue that could cause one of the senators or congressman to step down Palin now would be in an excellent position to be appointed to that office. The person that would be making the appointment to fill any vacant seat would be by the person Palin just made Governor.
Of course, this sceanrio is not really probable and there would probably be more questions and suspicion of Palin if it came true.
Sceanario 3: Palin prepares to run for the Presidency
Presidential campaigns are time consuming and expensive. President Obama starting running in 2006, two years before winning the office. If Palin wanted to run in 2012 she could have a headstart over everybody else in the race.
However, I think that her resignation to leave office early to run for president is not something that will sit well with voters and will be a big negative her campaign will have to deal with. Of course, Palin is 45 years old, and being president in 2012 might not be her goal. The Governor is young enough to be able to run in 15 years if she wanted to be president.
If Palin's looking to be president in the future she would have to do something now to prepare her resume. With President Obama in the White House I don't think she can expect a high level appointment of some kind. A good private sector job though could certainly help her resume and she can wait until 2014 when Senator Begich is up for re-election (who realistically will be a one term Senator).
Sceanario #4: Palin remains a semi-private citizen
There certainly is no question that the governor and her family have had their lives turned upside down since joining the national stage. It is possible the Governor resigned for the sake of her family and will work for the public good but not hold any public office.
The former Governor would be a great hire by any not for profit organizations and would be a great spokeswoman for multiple causes. If Palin stays out of public office her and her family stay out of the spotlight and won't be the blunt of latenight talkshow jokes.
What Governor Palin really plans on doing is not known and she has not indicated any desire to let the media or the public know until she is ready to tell people. We regretably will have to wait this out and see what exactly the Governor will do.
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