There is no doubt that the political world in 2009 will be an interesting one. Today we are 12 days away from the inauguration of the first African-American president. As President-elect Obama transitions into the oval office, it is hard not to notice the drama around some of his appointees and there is little doubt the drama will end anytime soon.
I am sure by now everyone has heard of the political and legal fight over the US Senate seat once held by President-elect Obama. On Tuesday (the day the 111th Congress took the oath of office) Roland Burris, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich's pick to fill the vacant senate seat was denied his seat by the Secretary of the Senate. It now appears that Burris has come to some agreement with Democratic Senators, particularly Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and he will be seated. What Burris does need is Illinois Secretary of State Jesse White's certification on the official appointment papers for Burris to be seated. My guess is that Burris will take White to court and have the court force White to sign his certification papers. I will make my first of many bold predictions and say that Roland Burris will be Senator Roland Burris by next Friday.
The Democratic party has a large interest in seeing the drama surrounding Obama's senate seat end so that Obama and Congress can turn their attention to bigger things...like the economy. Although I should mention the Burris situation is not the only Illinois problem for Obama. This statement leads me to my next bold prediction: Governor Rod Blagojevich will still be Governor Rod Blagojevich by the end of this year. The Burris appointment is certainly a victory for Blagojevich and it does not appear the Illinois Legislature is willing or capable to impeach the Governor. I believe the only thing that will force the governor out of office is a guilty verdict and I doubt his trail and subsequent appeals will conclude by the end of the year.
Obama's headaches don't end with political issues from his home state, he is getting a pretty good amount of questions surrounding his pick of Leon Pannetta for CIA Director. For those of you who don't know, Pannetta is the former 8 term California Congressmen, Director of OMB, and White House Chief of Staff in the Clinton White House. The Pannetta pick is making a few heads turn because traditionally the head of the CIA is someone from the intelligence community and not a rather political person like Pannetta. Democratic Senator Diane Feinstein of California even expressed her concerns about Pannetta. I do predict that Pannetta will be the CIA Director but I can say that I don't think he will have the easiest time in that role.
My next bold prediction regards the potentially vacant New York Senate Seat of Hillary Rodham Clinton. I say potential because Senator Clinton will not resign her senate seat until she is officially confirmed by the Senate to be the next US Secretary of State. I undoubtedly belive Senator Clinton will be Secretary Clinton. The debate really is over what will happen with the vacant seat. New York Governor David Paterson has the sole power to appoint someone to the seat and as you probably heard Caroline Kennedy is interested in the seat. Another less nationally known candidate is New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. A recent poll taken by a New York news agency showed that New Yorkers prefer Cuomo over Kennedy by 20%. There are some National Democrats who would like to see Kennedy appointed because of her "star power" and her ability to fundraise so that she can keep the seat in Democratic hands in the 2010 election. I believe in the end Governor Paterson will select Andrew Cuomo to the seat. While Caroline Kennedy certainly has a national prescence, Cuomo's qualifications cannot be taken from him. Cuomo is certainly well known in New York and appointing him does not hurt Democrats chances in 2010 in keeping the seat. As a side note, Cuomo's father is the former Governor of New York. The 2010 Senate race will be interesting for sure with the possibility of two big name Republicans Rep. Peter King and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani vying for the spot.
The Obama camp must be thankful that the New York Senate spot is no where near as controversial as his own vacant senate seat. At this time. I cannot say that his transistion will be the easiest with the potential sticky nomination process of Pannetta and the withdrawal of New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson as Secretary of Commerce. 2009 could (and thats a big could) be very damaging to Obama with the trial of Blagojevich and potential indictments of key advisors like future White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. I also believe whatever made Bill Richardson step away from the Commerce post is something that might not go away and at the very least not look good for Democrats.
I know I appear to be acting harshly towards Obama but I want to be clear I do wish him the best of luck for the sake our country.
I will close by making three bold predictions from the Lone Star State. My first predicition is probably not particularly bold for anyone who follows Texas politics but for the sake of consistency I will call it a bold prediction: Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison will challenge incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry to his current job. If KBH does decide to run she will have to resign her Senate seat and that creates a rather interesting Senate race. Rumors have a few members of congress interested in the Senate seat including: Rep. Jeb Hensarling, Rep. Joe Barton, Rep. Kay Granger, and state Railroad Commisioner L. Michael Williams. This leads me to to my final two predictions i) Rep. Kay Granger will not run for the Senate seat and ii) Texas will elect an African-American Republican to the Senate in L. Michael Williams. Williams is already known statewide and no one can deny his charisma that will play well all across the state.
Please stay tuned for future posts and of course to see the accuarcy of my predictions.
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