Texas' musical chairs

A recent poll conducted at the end of February shows that current US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has a 25 percent lead over current Texas Governor Rick Perry. This poll in my opinion only strengthens the notion that there will be a contested Republican primary for the Governor's Mansion.

What I think will be more interesting is what a vacant US Senate will do to the rest of Texas. An open Senate seat can allow some of the younger and ambitious Republicans who have been sitting on the sidelines to emerge to the forefront and run for some other higher office. There are already rumors floating around that Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst and Attorney General Greg Abbott are interested in the job. In addition, there is the possibility some current member of Congress might be looking for a promotion. There is also the chance Texas Railroad Commissioner L. Michael Williams might throw his hat into the ring as well. Williams has been seen all around the state recently meeting with various Republican groups. Williams might not have his eye on the Senate though, but could be setting himself up for a run for Lieutenant Governor, if say, the job were open.

Of course, Williams, Dewhurst, or Abbott cannot run for anything yet if Hutchison doesn't decide to run. This is not the first time the Senator has dipped her toe in gubernatorial politics before. There are some people, like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who are nervous about having to defend another Senate seat. Right now the Republicans have 19 seats to defend compared to the Democrats 15 seats in the 2010 elections. Defending all 19 seats will be tough considering some of the Senators up for re-election: Jim Bunning (Kentucky), Judd Gregg (New Hampshire), Arlen Specter (Pennsylvania) , and Mel Martinez (Florida). Martinez's seat might be tougher to defend in part because it will now be an open seat after the Senator announced his retirement. Also, in this year's past election Obama won Florida and that state seems to either be trending Democratic, at the very least it's a very very purple state.

Republicans also don't seem to have a lot of options of taking seats away from the Democrats up for re-election. There are two possibilities in my opinion, in Colorado, where Michael Bennett will be up for election after being appointed to the Senate. The other possibility is in Nevada, the one challenge is the seat is currently held by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Nevada is a big maybe and it in part comes down who the Republican nominee is and Nevadans opinion of Reid's leadership in the Senate.

Getting back to Texas though, the National Republican Senatorial Committee would like to not have to spend any money at all in Texas, just to keep a seat in a state that wouldn't have a senate race at all. Texas is still a Republican state but you can't quite tell what could happen and the Democrats could pull out an upset. If the economy begins to improve and the Democrats are credited with its recovery and President Obama stays popular, anything can happen.

Right now the polls show Dewhurst and Abbott leading over hypothetical Democratic candidates John Sharp and Bill White. Abbott does have a slightly bigger lead over these opponents than Dewhurst. However, in any of these hypothetical match ups there is still about 25% of the electorate that did not have an opinion one way or the other.

All in all 2010 will be a fun year for national electoral politics, with or without a Hutchison run for Texas governor.